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Democratic Side-Show Scenarios
By Josh Stein, Rhode Island
When John Kerry was defeated by George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election, a friend mused, "What could the Democrats possibly do to screw up in 2008?" Even now with President Bush's popularity ranking placing him among the least popular presidents in America's history - he's ranked even lower than Richard Nixon was at the height of the Watergate scandal - it seems impossible that even the worst democratic misstep could produce a Republican president.
"What could the Democrats possibly do to screw up in 2008?" -Josh Stein
But the approval rating of congress hasn't fared much better. When the Republicans controlled it, the congress was thought of as a "rubber stamp" for Bush's policies. Now that the Democrats control it, the congress seems spineless. They pass a bunch of censures and non-binding resolutions, but nobody- Republican or Democrat- seems to care much about drafting legislation that would make life better for Americans.
Maybe there's more going on in congress than meets the eye. The Democrats are a fairly impotent bunch, but, at the very least, that impotence is serving them well. By not taking a responsible stand on a slew of issues that confront the country, they are letting the Republicans pass more of the same legislation that led to a Democratic victory in the midterm election.
So, exactly how could the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot this time? Well, first of all, they could have a brokered convention. With Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama running neck and neck in the primaries it's looking more and more like the democratic candidate will be decided by Super Delegates.
If this group of 842 high ranking Democratic governors, members of congress and former presidents (representing about 40% of the total delegates needed to get elected) actually decide who the democratic candidate is, it is likely the voters - especially young voters - and more than half of the Democratic party will feel disenfranchised.
At last count Obama had collected 1354 delegates to Clinton's 1263. Decisive victories would need to take place in big states like Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania in order for the Super-Delegates to be excused from assuming a deciding role in this election. It's worth pointing out that there have only been a few brokered conventions in America's history, but no candidate has emerged from one and then gone on to win the Presidency since 1932.
The Democrats could also screw up by nominating Hillary Clinton. Say what you like about her, she's a divisive candidate. Divisive candidates have won before, but when they're running against someone like John McCain who is famous for his appeal to moderates and Independents in both parties, they don't stand a chance of winning. Besides which, I can't imagine the Democratic candidate energizing the Republican base- the religious right - which might just be McCain's Achilles' heel.
I don't mean to beat up Clinton. The Democrats could just as easily screw up with Barack Obama as their candidate. Sure, Obama beats McCain in all the opinion polls (even swing state polls). But as the Clinton team constantly point out, Obama is "untested." Most people- especially those outside the Democratic party- don't know much about him aside from his stirring sound clips. That probably helps him in early polls. An untested and inexperienced politician who just so happens to be a brilliant public speaker seems like the sort of candidate who would either win by a landslide or lose by a landslide. He could be a Reagan or a Mondale, but not much in between.
Further shakeup might lie in how the democratic leadership changes its position on what to do about Michigan's and Florida's delegates. Trying to assert their importance and move their primaries up on the calendar, these states were punished by Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean who said votes and delegates from these states would not count.
Other states with early primaries were stripped of half their delegates, but Michigan and Florida, for some reason, lost all of them. Florida went Republican in 2000 by 500 votes- that's 0.00002% of the population. In a state like that, "the DNC thinks your primary means nothing" is not a good message to send to voters- unless you're a Republican.
But aside from these side-shows, the Democrats have a lot to be excited about with this election. The two candidates left standing out of an original pool of eight candidates have changed this presidential race and if the Democrats win in November the country will either have their first woman or their first Black president. Voters are very excited about that. Maybe that's enough to be optimistic about whatever mistakes are made this time. Maybe not - but hopefully we won't be wondering, "What could we possibly do to screw up in 2012."
