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demographic responses.
In this case, a computer creates a number. Although, points out Mr. Ferree,
"There are drawbacks to even this technique. There is no way of knowing
if the number the computer has selected is listed or even working. In addition,
single women with unlisted telephone numbers, people who have moved and people
with unlisted telephone numbers get systematically left out."
I was
very interested to find out that pollsters need only ask 1,500 people (which
is considered a large poll) to get an accurate result with a 3-4% margin of
error. "This means that there is only a one in twenty chance that you
will get answers differing by more than this in a sample, compared to what
would happen if everyone in the population was asked the questions,"
Mr. Ferree told us. Twenty or thirty people can make up a poll, but the margin
of error will be very high. A national survey takes about 10-15 minutes on
the phone and costs about $60,000.
Even
the most experienced pollsters can be wrong. For example, the pre-primary
polls conducted before the New Hampshire primary were off base in understating
how well Senator McCain would do against Governor Bush. According to exit-pollster
for a major network, Marty Frankel, "Primary polls are the hardest to
conduct because some people might say who they are going to vote for, but
not actually show up to push the lever."
Polled
information can have very varied results. Did you ever wonder why different
television stations report different information on the same topic, like the
presidential election? A television station reporting the latest polled information
on the presidential race generally doesn't tell you what questions the pollsters
asked respondents. These questions make a big difference to the inherent meaning
of the poll and what it was intended to measure. "Even if no one is deliberately
trying to bring about a particular result, what looks like similar questions
can be answered very differently," added Mr. Ferree. In addition, information
derived from a poll may have been achieved by a pollster manipulating a response.
"Specifically," Mr. Ferry added, "how a question is asked and
how it is worded makes a big difference in how it will be responded to. Different
wording produces different responses." Yet, we have to wonder how the
viewing/reading audience will respond to a reported poll. Will it influence
their decision?
What
are we to believe? We need the facts. We need to know how big and what population
was surveyed; we need to know how the population was selected; what questions
were asked and how the questions were worded. Also, we need to understand
that we may not be getting all of the pertinent information from just polled
responses. According to Mr. Ferry, "If it was not asked, it won't be
reported." Therefore, a poll can be slanted in the presentation of the
opinions it presents. |
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