Fri May 18, 2012
Fabio Stevanato
Making the Case for Action to Combat Global Warming
By Fabio Stevanato, Brussels – August 2010
Last winter was a memorable time for global warming deniers. Extraordinarily cold conditions in the northern and eastern regions of Europe (in particular) seemed to affirm their serious doubts as to any risk of climate change.
But while much of Europe and the United States were covered with snow and people experienced frigid temperatures, other regions of the planet, such as Alaska and Canada, were 5-10 degrees above their seasonal average temperatures. Further, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that last year was the warmest year ever recorded for the southern hemisphere.
Fast forward to this summer and we know that people in more than 16 countries have experienced unusually record high temperatures. These meteorological changes have caused many scientists to claim that ice mass of Greenland could disappear in just decades. We already know with crystal clarity that the atmosphere’s load of greenhouse gases is increasing by more than 10 million tons every year and that this causes global warming.
That said, can we really keep playing a groundhog game with the climate? I don’t think so. Certainly the people in Pakistan, China and Russia have suffered unbelievable weather disasters this summer and it probably wouldn’t take much for them to conclude that more weather-related threats lie ahead.
Pakistan has been devastated by the worst floods ever experienced by its population. According to recent estimates, more than 1,600 people have died and more than 100,000 others stranded, seriously threatened by ongoing monsoons rains. The floodwaters have washed away thousands of dwellings, hectares of crops, destroyed entire villages, roads and bridges. Diseases are spreading from contaminated water. It is estimated that at least 3.5 million of children are at risk of getting deadly waterborne diseases.
China’s dramatic floods and mudslides have caused nearly 700 hundred deaths in the southern and western parts of the country. Many people are still missing. Thousands of villages in northern China have been inundated by heavy rains and villagers have been evacuated from their homes. According to local authorities, these summer floods are the most serious since 1949.
Russia has been in a state of emergency due to hundreds of wildfires that have raged out of control in many areas of the country. Nearly 35 people have been killed and more than 3,500 people are now homeless. Entire settlements have been reduced to ashes. This dire scenario was caused by an unprecedented heat wave with temperatures reaching 42C in central and western regions of the country.
So while we continue to argue about whether these unusual and extreme weather patterns are a direct result of global warming one thing is abundantly clear – rising temperatures will likely intensify and the number of these types of extraordinary events will increase. The evidence is irrefutable.
In fact, data retrieved from ice in Antarctica proves that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is one-third higher than it was in the last million years. Because this green-house gas naturally forms a barrier against heat it is likely there will be more frequent and severe heat waves on the planet.
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics of the oceans at Potsdam University, and a member of the German Advisory Council on Global Change, says that for each higher degree of Celsius, 7% more water is available for precipitation in air masses. This verifies the very extreme and intense rainfalls experienced by millions of people in the last few months
Higher temperatures also increase the rate of evaporation, causing soil to dry very quickly even if the percentage of rainfall does not decline. This is one of the main reasons why desertification is increasing in many regions of the planet causing food and water shortages.
But more frightening than all of these clear signs is the apparent unwillingness of many developed countries to tackle this serious problem by imposing stringent and legally binding CO2 emissions targets. World leaders have been unable to draft an effective action-plan that addresses the consequences of human activities on the planet and the risks posed by greenhouse gases.
Actually, CO2 emissions have increased by 40% since the first 1992 United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) when the international community first discussed this issue. More recently, last December world leaders failed again in Copenhagen at the COP 15. All this lack of unanimity and consensus has established a burgeoning and deep mistrust in the entire process felt by those in the scientific, academic and civil society communities.
With only weeks before the next round of discussions in Cancun (November), it seems unlikely that any sort of positive and comprehensive action will even be considered. It’s like a travelling UN circus – next stop South Africa.
While governments and leaders can keep ignoring the facts, they will sooner or later be forced to face the risks posed by more and more severe weather extremes. The loss of lives, economic and structural damages caused by these dramatic and unpredictable natural events represent a heavy burden for any country – let alone the most vulnerable developing nations.
We are at a critical crossroad. The decisions or our lack of decisiveness today will define our tomorrow. It is time to be courageous, responsible and wise by acting together to change our behaviours and lifestyle.
We cannot dilly-dally anymore waiting for the possibility that our leaders and representatives might act. It seems to me we have a choice – either we adapt to extreme temperatures, droughts, floods, and the real possibility that our region might be the next one where millions die and millions more are displaced or we do something about our shared future.
Those who have died and those who are suffering in Pakistan, Russia and China could be any one of us. We must act to make favourable change now. This is the only form of real solidarity we can show towards those people who are currently suffering and it’s the only way to preserve our planet.
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China has clearly stated that the common but differentiated responsibilities (for developed and developing nations) should serve as the foundation for the next round of negotiations, and that trust among nations has been seriously damaged in Copenhagen summit, where “unreasonable” demands for developing countries were raised. That said, a legally binding international agreement is unlikely. I think a smarter strategy would be to decouple economic growth and environmental unsustainability by making green energies cheaper and available to all so even China and India would alternative-energy technologies to be a viable affordable option. The one huge problem I envision which could harm developing countries in particular is that of Intelllectual Property Rights.